Storm Warning - Solar Max

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Storm Warning - Solar Max

Post by HenryJ »

Solar Maximum , Solar Minimum, Solar Max

Global warming , Ice age , Solar Radiation
Last edited by HenryJ on Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:06 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Post by HenryJ »

Robert Roy Britt wrote: What is a Solar Maximum and What Happens?

The sun is always belching globs of its inner self into space, but every 11 years or so, changes in our star's magnetic field bring on an increase in sunspots, solar flares and events called coronal mass ejections. The result is a barrage of charged particles hurling toward Earth.

The peak in this cycle is called a "solar maximum" or "solar max."

Solar flares, one type of "space weather" associated with solar maximums, release tremendous amounts of energy, equivalent to a million hundred-megaton nuclear explosions, in just moments, scientists say.

Past disruptions

During the last maximum in 1989, a power surge triggered by solar energy damaged transformers of the Hydro-Quebec power system, leaving 6 million people in Canada and the northeast United States without power for more than nine hours. The event also knocked satellites out of orbit and disrupted radio communications.

Now, with a world that relies increasingly on satellites for daily communication, the risks are higher. Cellular telephones, pagers and the Global Position System -- used for airline navigation -- could be particularly vulnerable, experts say.

Other effects

Scientists increasingly suspect that solar cycles affect more than just satellites and power grids. An active sun, known to heat the Earth's outer atmosphere, may also alter our climate. Scientists say a small ice age from 1645 to 1715 corresponded to a time of reduced solar activity, and current rises in temperatures might be related to increased solar activity.

For northern residents, more solar radiation means an increase in the aurora borealis, or northern lights. The solar wind sends charged particles crashing into Earth's atmosphere every day. These particles are attracted to the poles by Earth's magnetosphere, where they excite molecules of nitrogen and oxygen and create the colorful displays of light. The displays should be more pronounced over the next two years.

Daily observations of sunspots began in 1749 at the Zurich Observatory, according to NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. Other observatories began contributing later, and continuous observations began in 1849.

The current 11-year cycle, the 23rd to have been measured by modern scientists, is called Solar Cycle #23.
Last edited by HenryJ on Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by HenryJ »

Science@NASA wrote:Solar Storm Warning

March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.

Like the quiet before a storm.

This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.

That was a solar maximum. The Space Age was just beginning: Sputnik was launched in Oct. 1957 and Explorer 1 (the first US satellite) in Jan. 1958. In 1958 you couldn't tell that a solar storm was underway by looking at the bars on your cell phone; cell phones didn't exist. Even so, people knew something big was happening when Northern Lights were sighted three times in Mexico. A similar maximum now would be noticed by its effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites and many other modern technologies.

Dikpati's prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima—and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.

The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun.

We have something similar here on Earth—the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, popularized in the sci-fi movie The Day After Tomorrow. It is a network of currents that carry water and heat from ocean to ocean. In the movie, the Conveyor Belt stopped and threw the world's weather into chaos.

The sun's conveyor belt is a current, not of water, but of electrically-conducting gas. It flows in a loop from the sun's equator to the poles and back again. Just as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt controls weather on Earth, this solar conveyor belt controls weather on the sun. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.

Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."

"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto—new sunspots!

All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."

When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011."

Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.

"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."

Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.
Have you renewed your cell phone contract? :lol:

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Last edited by HenryJ on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by WileyHunter »

Same with the ozone, I believe, it goes in cycles... Earth gets hot, ozone opens up, heat goes out. Earth gets cold, ozone closes up, heat comes back... At least that's my take on things.
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Post by s10 again »

Oh yes the 11 year solar cycle. Whats the big deal been going on since before recorded time. What could happen. Some satellite communication may become disrupted. The aurora effect may be seen farther away from the poles. And it means I need to set up and tune up my ham and cb radio because it will be easy to hit some skip. Thats about it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

If you want to keep track of solar events and other thing things like meteor showers,comet and near earth asteroids try this site.

Spaceweather

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Post by HenryJ »

s10 again wrote:Oh yes the 11 year solar cycle. Whats the big deal been going on since before recorded time.
Well , "the big deal is..." The tidal currents of the sun are in a 40 year cycle. This cycle and the next solar max are set to align. That could mean more than we have seen since sputnik was launched.
How reliant were we on electronics, satellites, cell phones back then?
Things have changed quite a bit. Do you have a UPS for your computer? Do you still have a corded phone that does not rely upon the electrical power to work?
Stores close their doors when their power is out. Not many can write receipts these days.
How prepared are people going to be if this storm pans out.
There is all sorts of terrestrial storm preparation. What is being done in preparation for this one?
We look too short sighted most of the time. The whole fast food mentality.

Maybe this is nothing to worry about?

We have tornadoes, hail storms, tsunamis, earthquakes and all sorts of other storms. When one is predicted the warning goes out. This one, like you said happens every 11 years or so. Are we just bored and uninterested? A non-event?

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Post by roadrunner »

HenryJ wrote:Well , "the big deal is..." The tidal currents of the sun are in a 40 year cycle. This cycle and the next solar max are set to align. That could mean more than we have seen since sputnik was launched.
How reliant were we on electronics, satellites, cell phones back then?
Things have changed quite a bit. Do you have a UPS for your computer? Do you still have a corded phone that does not rely upon the electrical power to work?
Stores close their doors when their power is out. Not many can write receipts these days.
How prepared are people going to be if this storm pans out.
There is all sorts of terrestrial storm preparation. What is being done in preparation for this one?
Lived through the last 40 yr cycle I'll live through this one too. BTW I remember when sputnik was launched. As to reliance on modern electronics while it may be an inconvenience it's hardly a catastrophe IMO. Yes I do have UPS and a corded phone. As for stores they too will have to learn to cope if it is a widespread event. I for one am not planning on running around yelling the sky is falling. Too many people today get swept up in "catastrophes" and lose sight of more important events. JMO 8)
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Post by s10 again »

But we do have the ability to easily protect our satellites and our power grid. Sure there may be some things that take damage but I don't think this will end life as we know it. There are at least 2 satellites that monitor the suns temper tantrums. We have days to prepare for solar storms. I just hope that our leaders will listen to the advice our top scientist give to protect our electronic world if not then your concerns become valid.

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Post by HenryJ »

What do they have as protection for the satellites? And the grid? I know that our grid has nothing new installed and is susceptible. The public never sees all the work done to make the power delivery seem "seamless". Outages are not as common. We have back up plans to keep things going as long as the problems are localized. Do the big suppliers have bigger better plans? I doubt it.

I remember some very strong solar activity in the early seventies. The TV would go static for pretty long periods. What is the digital going to do now. I am guessing it will be worse as it already seems to be easily disturbed.

I'm not here to preach gloom and doom, but why are we hearing nothing? How can we prepare if no one seems to acknowledge what is coming.

Lets see what the "Smoking Guns" have to say about a conspiracy to downplay this to the general public. Are the cell phone companies still locking you into a two year contract? Does the fine print say that you still have to pay even if the service is not longer dependable? Would you be Ok with you cell phone only working half the time? Maybe they are afraid we will all find out and stop consuming their product?

Amateur radios should be outstanding! But what about all the interference in other bands? Who will put out the fire if emergency channels are disrupted by signals bouncing farther than ever before? The push to narrow band should hit about right if they don't push it back yet again. That won't help us with foreign band plans that don't coincide with the US. Are we going to need an international organization to direct this? That sounds expensive and "organization" may not be the operative term ;)

I don't have many answers. I guess that is why I bring the topic to light.

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Post by s10 again »

Yep, And I recall some power and communication problems in the 80s due to solar activity as well. From these solar events we have learned how to deal with these events on a smaller scale. To help protect our satellites we either move them or change their angle if we can. Anything put up in the last 10+ years are more heavily shielded.

As to digital tv that might be a good thing. The digital coding will help lock the receiver in. I will give you an example of how this works. In the world of remote control vehicles we are beginning to use digital radios in the 2.4 GHZ spectrum. Each receiver and transmitter are paired. Once paired that receiver will only accept the signal from its paired transmitter even if there are many other radios transmitting on the same frequency. The only way interference can occur is if two radio's are paired with the same code. I think there are 2 million plus codes so that is unlikely.

Digital tv is not exactly the same but is close enough to share the same benefits. But there is a bad side being that digital tv is either there or not unlike the old analog days were you could have a bad signal but still deliver some picture and sound.

And yes the radio will be crowded but this should move as a cycle of its own. The beauty of the solar maximus is when it is in your favor a small cheap 4watt mobile cb can fare just as good as a 2000 watt base. The last solar max had me talking across the country with a Cobra 19 fresh out the box. I did not have my amateur radio license back then but wish I had.

Most police and fire department radios are coded either again with digital or tones. This helps cut interference on their radios as well. But the back up as always will be us Hams. And I think we are more than up to the task. But I do need to practice my morse code that will almost always get through. I so wish that the FCC would have kept some code for certain classes.

And cell phones don't get me started as mine only works half the time anyway. :P

Chris.